SISTEM INFORMASI PERAMALAN PENJULAN JAMUR MENGGUNAKAN METODE DOUBLE EXPONENTIAL SMOOTHING BERBASIS WEB PADA PT AGARICUS SIDO MAKMUR SENTOSA

Abstract

he selling of product to consumer can give income for company, so forecasting of product is
needed to predict of company product. PT Agaricus Sido Makmur Sentosa (ASIMAS) is company
that is producting of mushroom. The problem of the company is the demand unbalance with the
supplay of product. That problem occured, because the stock of mushroom production
uncontrolled. This research propose is to make application of forecasting double exponentially
smooting with one parameter from brown. The weekly historycal data is taken from January 2016
to December 2016. This application can be used to know, to help and to make it easier PT Agaricus
Sido Makmur Sentosa (ASIMAS) to forecast of product next time ahead. To measure the accuracy
of forecasting are used Mean Absolute Deviation (MAD), Mean Square Error (MSE), Mean
Absolute Percentage Error (MAPE). The forecasting with using alpha 0,1; 0,2; 0,3; 0,4; 0,5; 0,6;
0,7, 0,8, 0,9; the minimum value of MAD, MSE and MAPE is obtained for alpha 0,2.